26 while the South African rand appreciated 1

Far from calling into question the current environment, the recent speech of members of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) encourage risk taking. They have constantly said that rates will remain low long indeed. The dollar suffers, since his role as motto of funding in portage (or "carry trade") strategies is strengthened. These operations are to bet on rate differentials between two currencies, by borrowing that is associated with monetary policy shopping to invest in one that will benefit from higher rates. Since the Fed lowered interest rates to 0 and launch the "quantitative easing" measures, the greenback has the mêmes virtues than the yen.

Yesterday, the dollar index, which measures the parity of the greenback against six other major currencies, has fallen by 0.78, close to its lowest of the year. The US currency has won 0.87 against the euro, which is mounted to 1,4999 dollar before closing at 1,4980 at the end of session. More representative further acceleration of the "carry trade", the motion of increase in high-yielding currencies strengthened. New Zealand and Australian dollars respectively earned 1.5 to 1.26, while the South African rand appreciated 1.75.

The fall of the green ticket is words of James Bullard, member non-voting American Central Bank, who pleaded Sunday for the maintenance of programs of purchases of securities hypothécaires credits and securities agencies of refinancing beyond March. "I would like to only maintain activity at a very low level, instead of saying that we are closed permanently, he said. This would not change anything for the economy at the beginning, but would give the Fed the possibility to react to upcoming news. "The Fed has put an end to his device for purchase of State bonds, but undertook, at its meeting on 4 November, to keep these two other programs until March. The minutes of this meeting, unveiled tonight, should say more on the debate between the membres of the Committee on this subject. "Maintaining an ultra-accommodante monetary policy remains the main catalyst for the market of the changes", noted Barclays Capital strategists. According to them, the minutes are likely to renew pressure on the dollar.

Divergence of balance sheet

The noose is tightening all the more on the green ticket that the gap is widening between the US and Europe. "It seems that the European Central Bank moves faster than the Fed to the output of the device of crisis," said Calyon team. The ECB has especially hardened, Friday, the eligibility of securities ("asset backed securities") assets to refinancing operations ("Les Echos" of yesterday). On the other hand, its President, Jean-Claude Trichet, insists that the supply of liquidity measures will be progressively withdrawn and José Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, one of the members of the Executive Board, said that the process of extinction of the non-conventional measures could be detailed at the meeting of December 3. The market is almost certain that the refinancing operation at 1 year of December 16 will be the last. "The difference between the ECB and the Fed is also in the fact that the results of the Fed continues to increase, while that of the ECB", adds Calyon.

The strong rebound of markets shares, yesterday, showed a return of appetite for risk. Verbal interventions by central bankers were not the sole cause. Good figures for the US housing have supported the trend. The dollar is, since the crisis, negatively correlated to the stock market, because of its currency refuge status. It has therefore also reacted to these statistics. Several specialists also diminish the role of the "carry trade" in the movements of the dollar. "there well portage strategies currently conducted by investment funds, but non-speculative liquidity outflow of the US in the direction of emerging countries have also been huge in the last six months and it is important to distinguish between these movements with leverage effects," thus notes Stephen Jen, BlueGold Capital Management (formerly at Morgan Stanley). In addition, the "carry trade" requires that the volatility is low. That of the foreign exchange market has not yet returned to its pre-crisis levels.