The movement has begun is still far modest

The Government notes out of recession faster than expected economy. The Prime Minister, François Fillon, decided yesterday to raise growth forecasts issued in June. "In 2009, we thought undergo a decline of 3, we believe that this will ultimately not more than 2.25, he said. For 2010, we go back our growth forecast that was far from 0.5 to 0.75. "After four consecutive quarters of decline, GDP recorded a surprise rise of 0.3 in the second quarter, which is automatically the forecast for this year. In addition, several signals (manufacturing, exports) suggest a third positive quarter.

Like the Government, many economists have recently identified their forecasts. This year, they are generally the same prognosis, building on a "limited" to 2.15 decline which will nevertheless remain the worst year since 1945. But scarce, economic forecasters anticipate overall than Bercy for 2010 rebound. Available each year before the presentation of the Finance Bill, the members of the technical group of the Economic Commission of the nation provide, on average, a 1.1 growth.

The economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, stresses that the revision of the forecast for 2010 is "moderate and prudent." Never very pleasant exercise, the Government has been forced repeatedly to lower its forecasts over the past two years. He wishes to avoid this in the future.

"Fragile recovery in germ".

However, establish a scenario out of the crisis is not an easy exercise. For evidence, the growth forecasts for 2010 17 public and private economic institutes must send today to Bercy spread between 0.2 and 2.2 (see above)!

If you restart, François Fillon and Christine Lagarde insisted that "the crisis is not over." "The recovery unfolds, it is fragile but it is in germ, explained the Prime Minister." The movement has begun is still far modest. "In addition, this light better may be hardly noticeable for the French: the Minister of economy said that"unemployment should increase for even a few quarters. " In her view, net job creation will resume when the GDP will be "at approximately 1.5 of growth".

To support the recovery, the Government intends to focus on support to investment, with the reform of the tax (read below), and to the financing of SMEs whose own funds are affected (see page 3). Because the issue is that if the small rebound found today train resumed Atlantic and sustainable future.

The short term, economists agree that the growth will benefit from a restart of industrial production, after his dizzying fall of the last quarters. "The end of the déstockages in the business and plans public stimulus will strongly support the growth in the second half of 2009 and early 2010, explains Denis Ferrand, Director of COE-Rexecode, Institute among the most optimistic for 2010.". However, "these short-term support forces are that the pace of growth to erode as 2010," he continued.

The big uncertainty is located on the demand side. "With the rise of unemployment, public deficit, inflation and the end of certain direct support measures to the disposable income, household consumption is forecast to decline from the beginning of 2010", anticipates Mathilde Lemoine (HSBC France), which is among the most pessimistic for 2010.