They will represent in the medium term i

The presentations of European companies, the "slides" in emerging markets have become more frequent. The stunning growth of "emerging" countries - China, India, Russia, etc. - was indeed what impress: they represent approximately one third of global GDP, against a fifth at the start of the 2000s, according to the General society. The establishment economists expect growth of 6.5 this year, compared with 2.5 in developed countries. Above all, they contribute in exponential proportion to revenues and results of companies French and European.

Emerging countries thus totalled 28 of the turnover 2009 and 27 of Ebit (operating income) of the major European groups, whereas these shares reached respectively only 17 and 13 in 2002, according to calculations by Société Générale (1). They will represent in the medium term - i.e. by three to five years - around a third of the accounts of the groups (respectively 33 and 35). Unsurprisingly, China has the weight the most important (4 of 2009 revenues), Brazil (3), Russia (2) and India (1). Thus, "over the next years, emerging countries will contribute half the growth of European groups," said Alain Galena, responsible for thematic studies of Société Générale. At the same time, they account for about one-third in the market capitalization of European companies.

The weight of the emerging in the CAC 40 is also significant: it reaches approximately 28 of revenues (36 in the medium term), according to estimates by analysts of the red and black institution about 30 groups of Parisian index. The differences are significant since the share of the income related to the emerging ranges from 1 for Capgemini in more than 70 for Total.

Very logically, certain sectors and certain values are more exposed than others. Energy services and equipment suppliers are about three-quarters of their income in the emerging, just before semiconductor, oil and tobacco as well as construction materials, according to Aurel calculations on the companies European from the DataStream database. Conversely, the media (radio, TV), retail banks and the construction have incomes that depend more widely on the Continent.

Société Générale has built a basket of 24 European values that may benefit the most of the growth of the emerging, comprising several hexagonal companies: Carrefour, LVMH, Renault, Schneider, Technip and Veolia Environnement.

Fierce competition

But if the emerging are a positive force for many groups, they are also fierce competitors for others. "Taking market shares of the new global players (NAM) comes at the expense of historical phenomenon actors that, beyond the crisis, explains the deterioration of performance displayed by some", said Alain Galena. For example, the success of the two Chinese Huawei and ZTE international "disrupts significantly business to Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia or Motorola." The industry is generally more affected than consumption by this competition, including through lower production costs. In particular, aerospace and Defense (with particular competition of Embraer and Avic), materials and construction (with Enka) segment, capital equipment (with Shanghai Electric, Cosco), electronics (with Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics or Haier) (Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro or Infosys), it services and telecoms (with America Movil) equipment suppliers are the most threatened. The air, auto, chemistry, oil and the pharmacy may also, in a less degree, suffer.