They also month after month noted their estimates

The CAC 40 won about 10 since the beginning of the year, but its evolution of recent months has been contrasted. Very well très bien à le correction en Réserve américaine 2 des places bien orienté à le en 10,7 2 des internationales orienté the correction in reserve American 2 seats well oriented à le à le en en en bien orienté à le en 10,7 10.7 2 des des internationales orienté international oriented Despite the slight rebound this summer, the threat of a slowdown in the US economy, amplified by the decline of the real estate market, continues to weigh. Christophe Donay, head of the strategy of Kepler Equities, commented on the recent trend of the market and the major risks to monitor during the next few weeks.

The CAC 40 resumed about 12 since its annual low point of June 14. How you characterize its recent evolution

The market rebounded this summer on a series of reassuring statistics on inflation, arguing in the sense of a decision of the monetary tightening in the United States. What was affirmed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) us by adopting a status quo on rates, August 8. From this point of view, the Fed made the most of the work: short term interest rates should remain on the current level of 5.25 a few months. In addition, publications of results of recent weeks have confirmed the strength of the profits for 2006. This allowed to lift some of the uncertainties that had led to the correction of months of May and June, correction that had been amplified by movements of hedge funds.

But the consensus expected a slowdown in the growth of profits in 2006 and 2007...

The cycle of profits between phase of "standardization". That is, the growth of profits gradually converges to its long-term trend, which is around 7-8 per year. While between 2003 and 2005, the restructuring lever effect, it was 25-35 per year! For 2006, according to our indicators, 90 of the publications of the half-year results are satisfactory, that is, they are nearly all either in line with expectations, or well above analysts expectations. They also, month after month, noted their estimates. While early in the year they foresaw growth of profit of 8 for firms of the CAC 40 in 2006, the consensus table now on two figures, 12 growth.

Fears of a slowdown in US housing threatening the dynamism of the economy weigh. To these concerns, how do you evolve the market the coming months

The market should continue its upward trend for a few weeks. On the one hand, despite the recent increase, the market is not yet fully integrated growth of profits as early today. On the other hand, the price of a barrel of crude could book a good surprise by continuing to decline, which would give a significant boost to equity markets. The end of the year, however, may be more difficult while concerns over the US and global growth in 2007 will fully back on the front of the stage. It is clear that changes phase at a time in the economic cycle and cycle market. Because uncertainty lies in the extent of the economic slowdown, the visibility for the markets is reduced. Between the two possible scenarios, a soft landing or disaster ("hard landing"), the key lies in the American housing market. The downturn of the real estate transaction volumes is accentuated this summer. Stakeholders fear now that the decline in volumes is accompanied by a net fall prices knowing that there is a shift of six to twelve months between these two indicators. This directly penalize consumption of households, representing over two-thirds of us GDP. If the first trends are worrisome, the worst is not clear. Everything will depend on the ability of economic policy (both monetary and fiscal policy) to counter a possible too marked slowdown. Today, we have not yet all of the elements to establish a scenario with a certainty.

What is the potential for increase of the CAC 40 by the end of the year and what sectors do you

The CAC 40 can still rise 4 to 5 at the end 2006. European markets should continue to outperform the United States. Inside of Europe, the French place should maintain a slight advantage on the German market and significantly exceed the English market. And the large cap should be better than average values. Adopt sliced sectoral choices seems dangerous to me as difficult. Since a few months, the market has ceased to perform rapid sectoral rotation between cyclical, defensive and growth values that it is difficult to capture with the good "timing". The performance of a portfolio is especially a good asset, and geographic allowance.