But they are much more affected than expected

Unthinkable even five months ago, the fall of the oil continues inexorably. Friday evening, barrel of North Sea brent fell below 40 dollars London, 39,74 $ 2.54 dollars against the previous day down. New York, "light sweet crude" oil for delivery in January was completed at 40,81 dollars, a decrease of $ 2.86. In the space of a week, the price of a barrel of crude has lost 20 of its value. It is the largest weekly decrease since the 1991 Gulf war!

This dramatic decline as a result first of the absence of a decision of the Organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC). Meeting in Cairo on 29 November, the cartel has postponed any reduction in its production quota at the top of Oran, to be held on 17 December in Algeria. In the United States, then, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) looked for cold by announcing that the country had entered recession beginning in December 2007. The situation is still worsened on 3 December when the US Department of energy announced that the fuel consumption in November declined by 6.2 over last year. Friday, the publication of employment figures gave the coup de grace. The Department of labour, the US economy has lost 533.000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate now stands at 6.7, a percentage that had not reached more than fifteen years.

To take over, experts projected so far on emerging countries. But they are much more affected than expected. Above all, China and the India oil consumption remains restricted by relatively high prices, compared to world prices. These two countries do not free prices on their national markets systems have since the sale of fuels rates are set by Governments.

"In China, the retail price of diesel is still approximately 135 $ per barrel," said Olivier Jakob, the Office of Council Petromatrix. In fact, the Chinese Government has not passed the plummeting world prices fall. Better, he sees the current offset a window of opportunity to establish taxes on energy, to limit imports of oil and reduce pollution. First raised over the years, this reform of the system of prices could move fuel 0.2 yuan consumption tax to 1 yuan. In India, the Government waited Friday last to announce a decline of the retail price of 10 for gasoline and 6 for diesel fuel. This was the first decline since February 2007. It will enable just to offset the rising prices of 10, that New Delhi had to be resolved in June 2008. At the beginning of the year, this strategy of the status quo to protect local populations of the escalation of the price of a barrel. Today, it tends to weigh on the application of the two countries.

In this context, the International Energy Agency has once again revised its forecast for world demand for oil down. It should move from 86.2 million barrels per day (Mb/d) this year to 86,37 Mb/d in 2009. Since July, these figures were reduced from 700,000 b/d for 2008 and 1.4 Mb/d for 2009.