All partners of the majority must be on the list

The Elysee has already done his mourning of the upcoming regional elections. Keep two metropolitan areas (about 22) would be for the majority victory, win one or two a miracle, so that it is now attached to make this election a non-event. The signal given by Nicolas Sarkozy at the social Summit of February 15 was very clear: with or without regional, the pension reform is launched, it will be the priority record of 2010. But if the UMP invites observers for not too dwell on 14 and 21 March (dates of the first and second rounds), itself will follow the results more closely, Calculator in hand. Because behind the election hides a crucial test of the electoral strategy adopted by the President of the Republic.

Taking back the usual "laws" of political science, Nicolas Sarkozy made his 2007 presidential election the conviction that a single - party in this case the UMP - could reach traps of an election in two rounds. But on a condition: that he has enough his opponent in the first round to create a "dynamic", to compensate for the absence of "voice reservations" in the second. Demonstration in 2007: Nicolas Sarkozy received 31.2 of the vote in the first round, nearly six points to Ségolène Royal (25.9), and was able to prevail in fine with 53 of the vote despite the defection of François Bayrou and voice reserves available to the left.

Installed in the Elysee Palace, Nicolas Sarkozy is following this astonishing decision - with all its predecessors - did not seek to compensate for his "handicap" of one-party, but rather than increase. No one should live in the shadow of the UMP: all small components of the majority are gradually invited to join the party - centrist, villiéristes, hunters... Although it must pay a high price: to come, the UMP offers them jobs, frustrating its own troops.

For the regional elections, the head of the State imposes the same schema. All "partners" of the majority must be on the list. Some heads of list concerned of their second round, but only mezza vocce. The watchword imposed from the top is not that is challenged. The tactic is risky, regional elections are not customized as the presidential, and in 2004 election is already arriving in head in the first round has not prevented the right to pre-empt the final line. No matter: the head of State needs this laboratory for 2012, and Ministers are urged to engage in the campaign so that the lists have a "face". And so much worse if this contradicts the decision, taken in fine, to campaign on local issues of concern to the French.

If polls are to be believed, the device will not suffice to the Socialists their regional strongholds on the evening of the second round. But UMP leaders now seek something else: they want to demonstrate that the electoral strategy of the President is saved in the polls at least in the first round, and that its candidates know lengths in advance. For the ultimate failure, the rationale is ready: the French who love the balances want to keep the Socialists in the territorial Executive. A failure in the first round would be otherwise more problematic. He would awaken the majority voices hostile to President, behind including the new Centre of Hervé Morin electoral strategy.

As the regional "laboratory" offers three types of possible outcomes. Either the heads of lists UMP are hounded, or even exceeded, on the evening of the first round. Presidential strategy is fragile. Nicolas Sarkozy should seek to keep it as long as possible, not what would be to allow the polls up as the undisputed candidate for re-election in 2012. Either the top of the list are good scores, before PS, before losing in the second round. The President will then have more arguments to continue its course. And to debate the establishment of a vote in a ballot for the election future territorial advisors (which will give rise to the reform of local communities). Either the UMP creates the surprise winning more regions than predicted. It is the PS that could be brought to review its electoral theories. No - it what is quietly began to François Hollande Former Secretary of the PS has to agree to the offer by Daniel Cohn-Bendit (does not include Cécile Duflot) that Europe ecology renounces to present a candidate to the presidential election, in Exchange a thumbs up for the legislative elections.